War with Iran

[Mori Chu]

Trump plans to send 120k troops to go to Iran in preparation for war / military action:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/worl ... -iran.html

And our Iraq embassy is being evacuated in preparation for conflict:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/ ... on-1324931

Thoughts? Are we about to start another war in the Middle East?

[Superbone]

It's his best chance at reelection.

[Indy]

This is what John Bolton does. There were plenty of people saying it as soon as he was brought it. Expect a war with majority Muslim nations in the mid-east, likely on fabricated evidence.

[Nodack]

The US, China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK sign a deal with Iran to halt their nuclear program. Republicans call it the Obama deal. Trump is elected and rips up the deal, IMO out of spite. Now instead of peace Trump has ratcheted up the rhetoric and is close to starting another war.

What does China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK think about this?

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-06 ... -sanctions
European Council President Donald Tusk was particularly direct in his criticism, tweeting on May 16 that “[l]ooking at the latest decisions of President Trump, someone could even think: With friends like that, who needs enemies?”

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/5/9/1733 ... e-sanction
European leaders are calling President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal a potentially catastrophic mistake. One French diplomat is so furious, he even coined a new description of Trump’s view of the world: “unisolationism.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 43891.html
How the rest of the world is trying to save Iran nuclear deal from Trump’s attempts to sabotage it

EU, Russia and China reach payments deal to counter Trump's Iran move
https://www.axios.com/eu-russia-china-p ... 0eb15.html
The U.K., Germany, France, Russia and China have agreed to establish a special payments system to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Iran stemming from President Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Financial Times reports.

The big picture: The payments channel would be an alternative to SWIFT, the backbone of the global financial system that allows Iran to get paid for oil, pay for its imports and finance its activities abroad. The five countries involved in the agreement remain committed to doing business with Iran, which the International Atomic Energy Agency says is still complying with the terms of the nuclear deal. President Trump, meanwhile, has threatened that anyone doing business with Iran will not be able to do business with the U.S.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/europe- ... hreat.html
‘We reject any ultimatums’: Europe responds firmly to Iran’s nuclear deal threat

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/worl ... reats.html
Skeptical U.S. Allies Resist Trump’s New Claims of Threats From Iran

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/15/u- ... es-allies/
U.S. Hard-line Stance on Iran Rattles Allies
As Trump’s national security team barrels toward a confrontation in the Persian Gulf, Europe is starting to balk.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/23/opinions ... index.html
The big winner from Trump's Iran oil boycott: Vladimir Putin

https://www.thenation.com/article/iran- ... istration/
The Trump Administration Wants a War with Iran
Neoconservatives in Washington are ready to spark America’s next military disaster—one that may well be worse than the Iraq War.

“In order to get elected, Obama will start a war with Iran”
- DJT 11/ 29/2011

I think it is safe to say that all those countries think Trump is insane.

[In2ition]

I haven't put much thought or research on this, but starting a war with Iran seems to be super dumb with or without an election coming up. In fact, I can't see this being good for reelection, imo.

[Indy]

I haven't put much thought or research on this, but starting a war with Iran seems to be super dumb with or without an election coming up. In fact, I can't see this being good for reelection, imo.

I am not sure when the last time we were fighting a war and a first term president wasn't re-elected.

[In2ition]

I haven't put much thought or research on this, but starting a war with Iran seems to be super dumb with or without an election coming up. In fact, I can't see this being good for reelection, imo.

I am not sure when the last time we were fighting a war and a first term president wasn't re-elected.

I understand that, but I think a legitimate reason was used. This feels very made up, imo.

[Nodack]

I looked it up. No wartime President has ever been defeated for re-election.

“Don’t change horses in the middle of the stream.”

[In2ition]

There is always a first time.

[Nodack]

There’s always the first time for everything I suppose.

Nixon sabotaged the end to the Vietnam war to get elected and then used ending the war as the reason to re-elect him.

[Cap]

I looked it up. No wartime President has ever been defeated for re-election.

LBJ chose not to run for re-election because he was sure he would lose. Does that count?

[Indy]

I looked it up. No wartime President has ever been defeated for re-election.

LBJ chose not to run for re-election because he was sure he would lose. Does that count?

I think he did run, but realized he would lose so dropped out early. But he still served half of JFK's term and then his own. So he was nearly a 2 term president anyway.

[Mori Chu]

There are all kinds of bad rumor mill articles floating around saying that Trump doesn't agree with some of his own advisors and now doesn't want to go to war in Iran? I hate this kind of "palace intrigue" stuff and will mostly judge them on their actions, not leaked rumors about what they might or might not want to do. I just really hope they don't attack Iran. I don't want more wars, especially ones with no real provocation or cause.

[Mori Chu]

This is not normal

[Mori Chu]

Trump was about to permit a strike on Iran that would have killed ~150. But he called it off at the last moment. Brinksmanship at its finest! #ArtOfTheDeal

[Mori Chu]

A top Iranian military commander was just killed by a rocket strike ordered by Trump and his administration:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/middleea ... index.html

This is a pretty big deal. For one thing, it sounds like they didn't ask for or receive any proper authorization nor have any inter-agency conversation before launching this attack. Second, this could easily escalate into an actual war involving the US and Iran. Gulp.

[Indy]

Maybe I am wrong, but isn't targeting a military official from another country with missile strikes an act of war? We just started a war with Iran, right? Shouldn't we expect retaliation?

[Mori Chu]

Maybe I am wrong, but isn't targeting a military official from another country with missile strikes an act of war? We just started a war with Iran, right? Shouldn't we expect retaliation?

Iran certainly seems to think so. Their government issued a statement saying that they consider it an act of war and that they will retaliate and get vengeance. I don't mean to be melodramatic, but this could literally be the start of World War III. Or at the least, it could be the start of a more substantial conflict than our war in Iraq or Afghanistan; Iran is bigger, stronger, and has more allies than either of the other two.

[Cap]

[Superbone]

Wow. What an ironic tweet!