Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

[Split T]

Our rebounding should be fine.

Entering last season I didn't think it would be a problem, but they were dead last. They are going to have to put a real effort towards it.

But maybe a better indicator is our offensive rating. If we aren’t at least average offensively, then that most definitely says something about Booker’s role. For the record, I think we’ll have a pretty good offense this year and Booker will be a huge part of that.

What would it say? That he can't carry a team by himself? I know that, but I don't know how he'd be responsible for say Ayton's lack of domination, Oubre's inefficient chucking or the limitations of other players. These are not excuses, if you want to see him average 22-18ppg on a contender as a second/third option, then PHX should bring in better players. Ayton has a chance, but he needs to want to eat people alive.

We already know that he can’t carry an offense by himself, that’s what he’s been attempting to do the last 2 years. We got him solid nba quality pieces to play with this year(Rubio, Saric, Baynes) plus a full year of Oubre and Tyler. If our offense still sucks, then it tells me we need someone better than booker, that he needs to be a 2nd option.

[bajanguy008]

Not Indy, but I’ll answer.

Teams that got better:
Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Lakers

Teams that stayed relatively the same:
Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, TWolves

Teams that got worse:
Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies

No idea:
Pelicans

Some of those teams in the stayed the same category may improve, but nothing about their offseason tells me they definitely did. At least not to a significant degree. Kings maybe, but they also may have played slightly over their heads last year.

When I look at that list I see roughly 7 likely locks for the playoffs, in some order:

LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Nuggets
Jazz
Rockets
Blazers
Warriors

I think the following 6 teams are unlikely to make the playoffs:

Kings, Mavs, Twolves, Grizzlies, Thunder, Pelicans

So that kind of leaves me thinking that we would be competing with teams like the Spurs and Kings for the 8 seed. And it's always possible that one of my "locks" above, like the Lakers (Lebron injury) or Warriors (Curry injury) doesn't make it for some fluky reason.

I could totally see this Suns team winning 45 games and shocking the league. I could also see us winning 40 games and missing the playoffs but not by too much, locking up the 9-10th seed. No way do I see us down at the 14-15th seed like the past few years.

Split's take is pretty much the same as mine. I would have put the Warriors in the same category as the Pels, though, as I just have no idea about them. I expect them to still be pretty damn good, and better than all but maybe 3 teams.

So I think the locks are the same as you, Mori, but also think the Mavs and Memphis will be better than us this year. I think we are on par with the Kings and T-wolves, and hopefully better than OKC (but I can see a way they still out-perform us).

Yea I'm gonna respect what the Mavs have also and not dismiss them but I don't see Grizz at all , if they are better than us this would definitely be a disappointing season

[JeremyG]

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

[carey]

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

Finally something we agree on. I know they call KP a unicorn but I've never been all in on him. He's real skinny and I thought he would have health issues (as we're seeing.) I expect a career of lots of missed time due to this and that.

[Indy]

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

Making a good percentage of your shots and getting a lot of rebounds are just stats. If you are a 7-1 player that is stronger than almost anyone in the league, you need to use it and dominate games, when it matters. I loved Ayton's stats last year. They were great. But he didn't impact more than 3-4 games all season. Like everyone kept saying, 20-10 should be his floor, not his ceiling.

[JeremyG]

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

Making a good percentage of your shots and getting a lot of rebounds are just stats. If you are a 7-1 player that is stronger than almost anyone in the league, you need to use it and dominate games, when it matters. I loved Ayton's stats last year. They were great. But he didn't impact more than 3-4 games all season. Like everyone kept saying, 20-10 should be his floor, not his ceiling.

I don’t know if any rookie big man has dominated games consistently, at least in the last two decades.

“20-10 should be his floor, not his ceiling.” Well he averaged 10 rebounds his rookie season and easily would’ve averaged 20 points if he had a point guard, so I think 20/10 is basically his floor. What makes you think that will be his ceiling?

[SunsRIt]

I was curious to know how Ayton's rookie season stood up to many of the great(and a couple not so great) centers from the past. Most of these are top 10 centers in NBA history. One thing stood out to me: most of the greats that have played in the last 25 years played at least 2 years in college. almost all played 3 or 4 years in college, two came right out of high school. I looked at points, rebounds, blocks for comparison(listed in that order) and put them in no particular order. Based on this list I would say Ayton is going to be just fine. He was basically a sophomore in college last year with no point guard.

Kareem Abdul Jabbar - 28.8 - 14.5 - n/a
Wilt Chamberlain - 37.6 - 27.0 - n/a
Hakeem Olajuwan - 20.6 - 11.9 - 2.7
Bill Russell - 14.7 - 19.6 - n/a
Shaquille Oneal -23.4 - 13.9 - 3.5
David Robinson - 24.3 - 12.0 - 3.9
Robert Parish - 9.1 - 7.1 - 1.2
Dave Cowens - 17.0 - 15.0 - n/a
Dwight Howard - 12.0 - 10.0 - 1.7
Moses Malone - 18.8 - 14.6 - 1.5
Bill Walton - 12.8 - 12.6 - 2.7
Patrick Ewing - 20.0 - 9.0 - 2.1
Alonzo Mourning - 21.0 - 10.3 - 3.5
Tim Duncan - 21.1 - 11.9 - 2.5
Dikembe Motumbo - 16.3 - 12.3 - 3.0
Demarcus Cousins - 14.6 - 8.6 - 0.8
Ben Wallace - 1.1 - 1.7 - 0.3
Pao Gasol - 17.6 - 8.9 - 2.1
Kwame Brown - 4.5 - 3.5 - 0.5
Deandre Ayton - 16.3 - 10.3 - 0.9

[Flagrant Fowl]

Ayton's biggest obstacle to overcome is his own passiveness.

He talks a big game, but he seems content with letting things happen around him on the court. He'll need to assert his will against his opponents if he's to ever truly become a great player.

[Superbone]

He also needs to improve his conditioning. He'd start strong and then disappear.

[SDC]

houston will barely make the playoffs this year unless they shut down westbrook for huge chunks of the season. (harden was able to lift the rockets during the time houston went cp3-less.)

[Indy]

Ayton's biggest obstacle to overcome is his own passiveness.

He talks a big game, but he seems content with letting things happen around him on the court. He'll need to assert his will against his opponents if he's to ever truly become a great player.

He also needs to improve his conditioning. He'd start strong and then disappear.

This. I don't care what his stats say. If he can't do these things, he won't be impactful. He has all the tools he needs, physically.

[Mori Chu]

I'm optimistic about Ayton. He's still super young and learning what he needs to do to succeed in the NBA. Next season he's going to have a much better coach and a much, much better PG throwing him the ball. He'll also have better shooters around him to pass out of the post. Plus another offseason with NBA training staff and facilities. I see no reason why he would not make a big leap in his second season.

[In2ition]

I'm optimistic about Ayton. He's still super young and learning what he needs to do to succeed in the NBA. Next season he's going to have a much better coach and a much, much better PG throwing him the ball. He'll also have better shooters around him to pass out of the post. Plus another offseason with NBA training staff and facilities. I see no reason why he would not make a big leap in his second season.

I'm still unsure about this. Do we know WHO this is or WHERE this is yet? Is it now EXOS and their staff? Didn't Ayton work out with them prior to the draft last year? Very curious how this is going to work.

[INFORMER]

What am I missing on Dallas? Doncic is great and KP has been very good, but he’ll have sat out a year and a half when he plays his next game. Still, assuming he has no problem returning to form, what else does Dallas have? Seth Curry? Tim Hardaway Jr? JJ Barea? The rest of their team is pretty meh. I think we should be better than them.

Supporting cast also includes Delon Wright, Jalen Brunson, and Courtney Lee. More importantly, they have one of the best coaches in the league.

[INFORMER]

I think we're better than the Mavs. I like Doncic and KP a lot, but we have a better best 3 guys (Rubio, Booker, Ayton) than they do

Rubio is in our "best 3"?!

And I don't know what team vs. team debate is won with playing the Ricky Rubio card.

[INFORMER]

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

Rebounding aside, KPhas clearly been the more impactful player. You can actually give him the ball and ask him to go get you points. He imposes his will. Ayton just waits for opportune, easy baskets.

And KP's field goal percentage is going to be lower because he plays more on the perimeter. And rim protection is kind of a big deal.

[Split T]

What am I missing on Dallas? Doncic is great and KP has been very good, but he’ll have sat out a year and a half when he plays his next game. Still, assuming he has no problem returning to form, what else does Dallas have? Seth Curry? Tim Hardaway Jr? JJ Barea? The rest of their team is pretty meh. I think we should be better than them.

Supporting cast also includes Delon Wright, Jalen Brunson, and Courtney Lee. More importantly, they have one of the best coaches in the league.

Wright could be nice, Brunson is ok. Lee was garbage last year and is pretty old.

So take Booker/Ayton and Doncic/KP out and who’s got the better supporting cast?

Brunson/Barea/Curry/Wright/THJ/Kleber/Powell

Rubio/Johnson/Bridges/Oubre/Saric/Baynes.

I’m not saying their supporting cast is bad, but it’s not better than ours.

[JeremyG]

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

I would bet with anyone that Ayton is better than KP (even if he returns to form post-injury).

KP’s rebounding numbers have decreased every season he’s played, and his field goal percentage is atrocious for a big man. Probably the only area that he’ll still be ahead of Ayton in is rim protection.

Rebounding aside, KPhas clearly been the more impactful player. You can actually give him the ball and ask him to go get you points. He imposes his will. Ayton just waits for opportune, easy baskets.

And KP's field goal percentage is going to be lower because he plays more on the perimeter. And rim protection is kind of a big deal.

We don’t know what Ayton will do if we give him the ball, because we didn’t have anyone to give him the ball last year. We couldn’t even make a clean entry pass. Plus Igor didn’t seem interested in getting him the ball.

[INFORMER]

Right. But until Ayton shows it, it doesn't make sense to discount what KP has already proven.

[Indy]

Assuming Ayton will show something he hasn't, while assuming KP won't have something he has shown us, seems like a bad way to win an argument.