Whistleblower / Trump / Ukraine story

[Indy]

The chances of getting a conviction in the Senate, regardless of the facts of the case, are zero.

For the first time, the number of americans supporting impeachment and against it are equal. It was a 7 point difference just last week. If that moves much more, and 10 GOP senators hear from their constituents they want impeachment, it could happen. You know that Romney would LOVE to vote for impeachment if he felt safe in doing it. Same with Cruz.

[Cap]

The chances of getting a conviction in the Senate, regardless of the facts of the case, are zero.

For the first time, the number of americans supporting impeachment and against it are equal. It was a 7 point difference just last week. If that moves much more, and 10 GOP senators hear from their constituents they want impeachment, it could happen. You know that Romney would LOVE to vote for impeachment if he felt safe in doing it. Same with Cruz.

It takes 67 votes to convict.

[Nodack]

The glove fits...

[Indy]

The chances of getting a conviction in the Senate, regardless of the facts of the case, are zero.

For the first time, the number of americans supporting impeachment and against it are equal. It was a 7 point difference just last week. If that moves much more, and 10 GOP senators hear from their constituents they want impeachment, it could happen. You know that Romney would LOVE to vote for impeachment if he felt safe in doing it. Same with Cruz.

It takes 67 votes to convict.

Damnit Cap, I'm an engineer, not a mathematician!

[Superbone]

The chances of getting a conviction in the Senate, regardless of the facts of the case, are zero.

For the first time, the number of americans supporting impeachment and against it are equal. It was a 7 point difference just last week. If that moves much more, and 10 GOP senators hear from their constituents they want impeachment, it could happen. You know that Romney would LOVE to vote for impeachment if he felt safe in doing it. Same with Cruz.

It takes 67 votes to convict.

Damnit Cap, I'm an engineer, not a mathematician!

Calm down, Bones.

[Nodack]

When Trump finally melts down it will be epic.

[Nodack]

This is going to make a great movie when it comes out in a couple years. I hope Baldwin get’s the part as the evil orange villain.

I have been pretty critical of Biden and his son Hunter in their part in this latest scandal. The optics don’t look good. I can see where Republicans would want to see where that went. I have been trying to listen to what is being said and a big Republican talking point is that Hunter Biden only got his lucrative job at the Ukrainian oil and gas company because he was Bidens son and has no qualifications. I decided to look Hinter up on Wikipedia to see if he has ever had a job.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Biden
After graduating from law school, Biden took a position at MBNA America, a major bank holding company.[5] From 1998 to 2001, he served in the United States Department of Commerce, focusing on ecommerce policy.[10] Biden became a lobbyist in 2001, co-founding the firm of Oldaker, Biden & Belair.[11] According to Adam Entous of The New Yorker, Biden and his father established a relationship in which "Biden wouldn't ask Hunter about his lobbying clients, and Hunter wouldn't tell his father about them."[5] In 2006, Biden and his uncle, James Biden, attempted to buy Paradigm, a hedge-fund group, but the deal fell apart before completion.[5] That same year, Biden was appointed by President George W. Bush to the board of directors of Amtrak; he served on the board of Amtrak from 2006 to 2009.[10]

After his father was elected as vice president in 2008, Biden resigned from his position on the Amtrak board of directors and left his career as a lobbyist.[5] Along with Christopher Heinz and Devon Archer, Biden founded the investment firm Rosemont Seneca Partners.[11] He also became an attorney with the law firm Boies Schiller Flexner LLP,[5] and founded Eudora Global, a venture capital firm.[9] In 2013, Biden, Archer, and Chinese businessman Jonathan Li founded BHR Partners, a business focused on investing Chinese capital in companies based outside of China.[5] In September 2019, as he was also accusing Biden of malfeasance in Ukraine, President Trump claimed Biden "walk[ed] out of China with $1.5 billion in a fund" and earned "millions" of dollars from the BHR deal, assertions Washington Post and CNN factcheckers found false.[12][13]

In my opinion Hunter Biden does have extensive experience in business from what I see here. George Bush even hired him on the board of directors of Amtrak. I don’t know if Hunter did anything illegal or not but, the talking point that he has no qualifications for his position on the board of directors has been proven false to me.

[virtual9mm]

I haven't been posting much on the politics board because the past few years have just been a complete nightmare. I just wanted to note that Trump just admitted to one impeachable offense and committed a second one on the White House lawn today -- and bragged about it.

I also wanted to note that the Federal Election Commission chair just tweeted that soliciting foreign assistance in elections is a crime and will be prosecuted. The problem is that she has no authority to bring charges or take any action -- because Trump has refused to fill vacancies in the FEC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/fec-cha ... idens.html

After today, there is no doubt that Trump committed an impeachable offense. The litmus test is whether you think tearing the Constitution to shreds is something a President should be impeached upon. Call me someone who was against impeachment because it would widen polarization who has now come off the fence. If Trump is allowed to get away with this blatant violation of the law, the Constitution won't mean anything anymore.

[Mori Chu]

It is beyond blatant. Leaving him in office would be a total abandonment of our Constitution and our system of law. He must be impeached and removed from office for his blatant corruption, abuses of power, and his subversion of our government to serve his own personal interests.

[Flagrant Fowl]

It is beyond blatant. Leaving him in office would be a total abandonment of our Constitution and our system of law. He must be impeached and removed from office for his blatant corruption, abuses of power, and his subversion of our government to serve his own personal interests.

Don't take this the wrong way because we're in agreement on this issue.

He's been doing these things since he took his oath of office. Well, before that too, but it didn't really matter then because he was still a private citizen. My point is that he's not going to be impeached for any of this stuff. No one actually cares about the the Constitution in the manner that they say they do.

The only way is to vote him out next November.

[Mori Chu]

It is beyond blatant. Leaving him in office would be a total abandonment of our Constitution and our system of law. He must be impeached and removed from office for his blatant corruption, abuses of power, and his subversion of our government to serve his own personal interests.

Don't take this the wrong way because we're in agreement on this issue.

He's been doing these things since he took his oath of office. Well, before that too, but it didn't really matter then because he was still a private citizen. My point is that he's not going to be impeached for any of this stuff. No one actually cares about the the Constitution in the manner that they say they do.

The only way is to vote him out next November.

I think he very may well be impeached by the House. The House is majority Democratic, so they just need the party to rally around the impeachment and it'll proceed. The Senate would be required to conduct a lengthy impeachment hearing which would be quite embarrassing for the President and many of his closest cronies. Even if the Senate didn't vote to remove him after, it would be crushing for his presidency and legacy. And I think it'd increase the chances of his getting voted out in Nov 2020. I think they should do it. It's the right thing to do, and it's also good politics.

[Cap]

It is beyond blatant. Leaving him in office would be a total abandonment of our Constitution and our system of law. He must be impeached and removed from office for his blatant corruption, abuses of power, and his subversion of our government to serve his own personal interests.

Don't take this the wrong way because we're in agreement on this issue.

He's been doing these things since he took his oath of office. Well, before that too, but it didn't really matter then because he was still a private citizen. My point is that he's not going to be impeached for any of this stuff. No one actually cares about the the Constitution in the manner that they say they do.

The only way is to vote him out next November.

I think he very may well be impeached by the House. The House is majority Democratic, so they just need the party to rally around the impeachment and it'll proceed. The Senate would be required to conduct a lengthy impeachment hearing which would be quite embarrassing for the President and many of his closest cronies. Even if the Senate didn't vote to remove him after, it would be crushing for his presidency and legacy. And I think it'd increase the chances of his getting voted out in Nov 2020. I think they should do it. It's the right thing to do, and it's also good politics.

Ugh. You’ve got to let go of this naive notion that some of Trump’s supporters are reasonable people who can be convinced to switch sides and vote Democrat in 2020 if only we present enough evidence of Trump’s awfulness. Doesn’t work that way.

[Indy]

Marty--why do you think Mitch will allow a "lengthy impeachment hearing" before going to a vote? He would grandstand as much as possible, take as little time as possible allowed under Senate rules, and then call for a vote. It would be over in a week, and the GOP would claim Trump has been vindicated. NO COLLUSION! NO OBSTRUCTION! Yeah, we would all have that voting record to go after in the next local elections for Senators, but most of these people, save 10 or so, are in extremely safe seats with little chance of losing even if they came out and said they support Putin over any American Democrat.

[Mori Chu]

Ugh. You’ve got to let go of this naive notion that some of Trump’s supporters are reasonable people who can be convinced to switch sides and vote Democrat in 2020 if only we present enough evidence of Trump’s awfulness. Doesn’t work that way.

I don't think I am being naive. Maybe we are talking about two different groups of people. Trump has a hardcore base that amounts to about 30-33% of the country's voters. They will support him through thick and thin. An impeachment hearing, even one where Trump looks guilty as sin, won't sway them. We can agree on that. But Trump also got a lot of votes from other folks, from undecided voters, moderates, swing voters, folks who wanted change, etc. who are capable of being swayed. He's already lost some of their votes, and an impeachment would sway more still. It can matter a lot. Despite the increased political polarization in this country, not every voter has completely made up their mind about the 2020 election yet.

[Indy]

Ugh. You’ve got to let go of this naive notion that some of Trump’s supporters are reasonable people who can be convinced to switch sides and vote Democrat in 2020 if only we present enough evidence of Trump’s awfulness. Doesn’t work that way.

I don't think I am being naive. Maybe we are talking about two different groups of people. Trump has a hardcore base that amounts to about 30-33% of the country's voters. They will support him through thick and thin. An impeachment hearing, even one where Trump looks guilty as sin, won't sway them. We can agree on that. But Trump also got a lot of votes from other folks, from undecided voters, moderates, swing voters, folks who wanted change, etc. who are capable of being swayed. He's already lost some of their votes, and an impeachment would sway more still. It can matter a lot. Despite the increased political polarization in this country, not every voter has completely made up their mind about the 2020 election yet.

538's analysis of the elections show there were only about 7% of the voting public in national elections are really 'swing voters' and I think his base is a lot higher than 30%. And his approval ratings in the GOP are around 85%. I am in favor of an impeachment inquiry, and the Dems in the house should be having a hearing every day with a key witness and sharing the grifting Trump is doing to our everyday tax payers. That will help sway that 7% in key demos.

[virtual9mm]

Trump's support in the base is starting to soften -- there's a lot of folks on that side that would consider arguments against him according to the latest polls. Not a majority but perhaps enough. If you get 90% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans, that's like 36% + 18% + 9% = 63% support for impeachment proceedings. And we're getting there.

Support for impeachment proceedings = risk management for Democrats going into election season

Support for impeachment = a longshot chance at removing Trump from office

But something that few are willing to mention is whom the US Armed Forces will back. I doubt that Trump would be willing to relinquish power even if he loses an election by a substantial margin, which means that other means will be needed to remove him from power. The Supreme Court may become important in this situation, but Trump may very well ignore a ruling against him. This means that the ultimate arbiter of a democratic transition of power will be the Army, really. Whom he has done a fantastic job alienating recently.

Scary to think that the US has come to this.

[Indy]

Trump's support in the base is starting to soften -- there's a lot of folks on that side that would consider arguments against him according to the latest polls. Not a majority but perhaps enough. If you get 90% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans, that's like 36% + 18% + 9% = 63% support for impeachment proceedings. And we're getting there.

Support for impeachment proceedings = risk management for Democrats going into election season

Support for impeachment = a longshot chance at removing Trump from office

But something that few are willing to mention is whom the US Armed Forces will back. I doubt that Trump would be willing to relinquish power even if he loses an election by a substantial margin, which means that other means will be needed to remove him from power. The Supreme Court may become important in this situation, but Trump may very well ignore a ruling against him. This means that the ultimate arbiter of a democratic transition of power will be the Army, really. Whom he has done a fantastic job alienating recently.

Scary to think that the US has come to this.

I think we started down that path when SCOTUS handed the presidency to Bush Jr in 2000.

[Nodack]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... mpeachment
While early shifts in support of impeachment appeared to be driven by Democrats, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Tuesday rocked Washington, finding that nearly 30 percent of Republicans support the impeachment investigation and nearly 20 percent support a Senate vote to remove the president if he is impeached in the House.

Since July, the poll found support for an impeachment inquiry has grown by 25 points among Democrats, 21 points among Republicans and 20 points among independents.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, support for impeachment among Republicans has increased from 8 percent last month to 16.2 percent presently, while support among independents has leaped from 33.9 percent to 44.4 percent.

[virtual9mm]

Fox News of all players:

"Just over half of voters want President Trump impeached and removed from office, according to a Fox News Poll released Wednesday.

A new high of 51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40 percent oppose impeachment altogether. In July, 42 percent favored impeachment and removal, while 5 percent said impeach but don’t remove him, and 45 percent opposed impeachment."

I think that their newsroom has decided that they are newsmen first and partisans second -- while their editorialists and commentators are obviously still all-in on the Trump bandwagon. A civil war on Fox News really helps TBH.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... mpeachment

[Mori Chu]

Fox's polling division has actually always been solid. It is entirely separate from their news and commentary divisions.

And yeah, support for impeachment has been going up rapidly. If you compare charts of Trump's impeachment support vs Nixon's, his is rising faster. Once Nixon got a little further than Trump is now, he resigned. Here's hoping?