The 2021 Suns Offseason

[Split T]

Gobert doesn’t actually struggle in the playoffs. He does fine, it’s the rest of the team that struggles. The real issue is Rudy covers for their poor perimeter defenders all season long until they face a team that can keep that from happening.

The jazz strategy on defense is to funnel everything towards Rudy who single handedly makes them a top 5 defense by his dominance defending the paint. Teams like the Clippers and Rockets of years past will play 5 out and not give Rudy anyone to defend. Rudy gets drawn out to the perimeter and the jazz perimeter defenders can’t keep anyone in front of them.

So I don’t think it’s Rudy’s fault. It’s a scheme problem and a roster balance problem. Of course it would help if Rudy could make teams pay for going small on him. Ayton is a bit more effective at that than Rudy, but he’s still not great. And whatever advantage Ayton has on offense, I think Rudy makes up for on defense.

As for KAT, yes Ayton is a significantly better defender, but KAT is a way, way, way better offensive player. I think it’s pretty hard to know whether we would have been better with him or not because we would have been so different. I know the Clippers wouldn’t have been able to go small as KAT would have destroyed those lineups. Would Giannis have gone off even more? Perhaps, but I can’t imagine anyone putting out a better offense than us. CP3/Book/KAT is an insane offensive trio.

[3rdside]

He's getting a max contract. It's just a matter of the details. And yes, Ayton is more well rounded than KAT and Gobert.

Agreed, he's just shouldn't expect to get a maxxed max in line with Doncic and Young, two franchises changers which Ayton isn't.

[Superbone]

He's getting a max contract. It's just a matter of which team gives it to him.

FIFY.

Stop it!

[3rdside]

Paying your 3rd or 4th best player $35-40M/year will never look cheap.

If we don't expect Ayton to be at least our 2nd best player within the next couple years then we should trade him right now.

In order for him not to be, it would take at least 2 of the following happening:

1. Zero improvement from Ayton.

2. Huge jump from Bridges or historic jump from another player.

3. Chris Paul being the best 38-year old to ever play.

Ayton can still be getting better, while not out-pacing Paul's decline over the next 2 seasons. I REALLY hope that doesn't happen, though.

And it wouldn't take too much for Bridges and Ayton to be equally good players for us. I don't see that as a huge step for Mikal.

If I'm structuring a contract for Ayton, I'm making it sans-Paul dependent.

Paul is like Nash, making everyone around him better - and when Paul retires, and if Ayton's statistics tank, then you pay him less.

I don't think that's a difficult argument to present to Ayton, as it's a simple to see (I hope) fact.

Marion after leaving the Suns
Jordan after Paul left the clippers
Even Wiggins after Rubio left (another pass first PG).

Wouldn't that be great! In that world, I'd make sure all contracts had a sans-Productivity expectation requirement. If they don't meet it, they don't get paid what we negotiated.

Have a look at this - while looking into the Young / Doncic / SGA / MPJ max contract extensions, it looks like MPJ's contract has got quite a bit of optionality built into it.

His $172.5m max is the headline but the final season of that ($39m) is not fully guaranteed (only $12m is, although he only has to not be waived to receive the rest).

And he's got two kickers (officially "TBD" what those kickers are) to push him up into super max territory.

So that's what we should do with Ayton - throw in a whole bunch of options beyond his basic $172.5m max contract.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/denver-nugg ... -jr-26980/

[Split T]

I’d just give him the 5/172 deal with no escalators. Let him have a player option on year 5 if he wants. If he wants more than that I’d just wait till next offseason.

[3rdside]

I’d just give him the 5/172 deal with no escalators. Let him have a player option on year 5 if he wants. If he wants more than that I’d just wait till next offseason.

I wonder if there’s scope to offer less than max with incentives or is that too complicated?

If so then yeah, 5 / 172 is the deal.

[Split T]

I’d just give him the 5/172 deal with no escalators. Let him have a player option on year 5 if he wants. If he wants more than that I’d just wait till next offseason.

I wonder if there’s scope to offer less than max with incentives or is that too complicated?

If so then yeah, 5 / 172 is the deal.

You can always throw bonuses into the mix…but there’s zero chance Ayton is accepting a deal for less than the standard max.

To me, I really think the suns are offering the standard 5/172 max and Ayton is asking for the full escalators max. We’ll see if there is a compromise(Something like MPJ’s deal) in the next week and a half.

I think the fact that Bridges deal hasn’t been announced is a good sign. I’m sure we want to announce both extensions together and I have the feeling we are probably done negotiating the Bridges one. We’d have announced it by now if it didn’t seem like the Ayton deal was going to happen, so I’d guess there is optimism to get the Ayton extension figured out. I also really have no clue what I’m talking about, haha, so who knows.

[Flagrant Fowl]

I think your hunch is right, Split. It would be really bad optics for them to announce Bridges' extension and not Ayton's right now. Not to mention it would be disrespectful to Mikal because everyone would immediately blow past it and ask about Ayton.

I also agree that the hang up on Ayton's extension is likely related to the escalator bonuses.

[JeremyG]

That's a very optimistic way of looking at it lol. I doubt they are any closer to a Bridges deal than an Ayton deal. It's insane that they are willing to risk losing both players due to Sarver's cheap stubborness yet again.

Why destroy the wonderful chemistry that got you to the Finals?

[Split T]

That's a very optimistic way of looking at it lol. I doubt they are any closer to a Bridges deal than an Ayton deal. It's insane that they are willing to risk losing both players due to Sarver's cheap stubborness yet again.

Why destroy the wonderful chemistry that got you to the Finals?

I just don’t see the danger of losing them that you do. They are restricted free agents. Everything completely under our control. The chances we don’t sign Bridges are basically zero. He’s not going anywhere unless we’re trading him for a superstar.

[ShelC]

[JeremyG]

Yeah, if they already had an agreement with Bridges, that would at least have gotten leaked by now.

[JeremyG]

Here's an article that goes into the dangers of not coming to a deal with Ayton, and what has happened in the past with other teams/players: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/brea ... -the-suns/

Ayton—perhaps justifiably—believes he has earned the max on merit. Whether or not this is true is almost irrelevant. Relationships between teams and players frequently fracture over money. Contentious negotiations can seep into locker rooms and derail championship pursuits. The Suns aren't just haggling over dollars and cents here. They're risking a very rare and very precious opportunity to win the title they fell two games short of a season ago.

I don't agree with this assessment from the article, though:

Clint Capela and Myles Turner are both making less than $20 million this season, and they were meaningfully better regular-season players than Ayton last year.

Turner was a "meaningfully better" player, just because he piled up a bunch of blocked shots, when he averaged 12.6 ppg and 6.5 rpg on .477 FG% in more mpg than DA? That's crazy.

[JeremyG]

Here's another interesting article: https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2021 ... -you-think

However, it is wrong about SGA not having escalators, according to Woj:



So all 4 players (Doncic, Young, SGA, MPJ) have the supermax or potential supermax (30% of 2022 cap) based only on reaching an All-NBA team. This is the fair market value for Ayton.

Hollinger's "Expected Extension Value" (EEV) for Ayton is 5 years, $194 million.

[Superbone]

That's a very optimistic way of looking at it lol. I doubt they are any closer to a Bridges deal than an Ayton deal. It's insane that they are willing to risk losing both players due to Sarver's cheap stubborness yet again.

Why destroy the wonderful chemistry that got you to the Finals?

I just don’t see the danger of losing them that you do. They are restricted free agents. Everything completely under our control. The chances we don’t sign Bridges are basically zero. He’s not going anywhere unless we’re trading him for a superstar.

Yeah, let's not freak out until we at least hear some grumblings of discontent from the players themselves.

[Split T]

Here's another interesting article: https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2021 ... -you-think

However, it is wrong about SGA not having escalators, according to Woj:



So all 4 players (Doncic, Young, SGA, MPJ) have the supermax or potential supermax (30% of 2022 cap) based only on reaching an All-NBA team. This is the fair market value for Ayton.

Hollinger's "Expected Extension Value" (EEV) for Ayton is 5 years, $194 million.

The difference is the pathway to all-nba is much easier for Ayton. SGA and MPJ are not making all-nba unless they make a huge leap and in SGA’s case, OKC would need to be much better.

[The Bobster]

If Ayton turns out to be the 3rd best center in the league after Jokić and Embiid, I'm happily giving him the super-duper max.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

Being the third best center in the league is not as useful or imposing as it was in the 90’s, early 2000’s

Neither is the scale and competition field on the center position as high as “third best” might sound.

[Split T]

Rudy Gobert was the 3rd best C last year, I wouldn’t pay the super duper max for that….now if he ends up closer to Jokic/Embiid? Sure

[Cap]

Rudy Gobert was the 3rd best C last year, I wouldn’t pay the super duper max for that….

But the Jazz would, and do.