POLL: Ayton/Nurkic trade

[TOO]

I’m here for the Jeremy post trade grief thread. It’s ok not to be ok man. It took me a minute to recover from the Marjele for Hot Rod Williams trade. And the Marion Shaq Trade.

This one could end up very similar to both of those trades: getting an older, injury-prone center who is in decline—while never knowing what could have been if we stuck with the player we drafted.

I’ll admit I was halfway in favor of the Shaq trade—just because we had never had a great center and I was hoping with our medical staff he could still be somewhat dominant. But I loved Marion, can’t wait for his well-deserved ROH induction!

Ahhhh... so you just like slightly above average centers, it all makes sense now.

[Drewsprocket]

That Marion Shaq deal still makes me sad. Matrix should've retired as a Suns lifer.

Agreed but he wanted out given his wild expectations and complaints. Dude had his change to develop into a 25 ppg guy. But it just wasn’t his game, he didn’t have the handles, didn’t like contact to get to the line, and wasn’t good enough of a shooter. They just needed a smarter trade than wishful thinking bs.

[JeremyG]

I’m here for the Jeremy post trade grief thread. It’s ok not to be ok man. It took me a minute to recover from the Marjele for Hot Rod Williams trade. And the Marion Shaq Trade.

This one could end up very similar to both of those trades: getting an older, injury-prone center who is in decline—while never knowing what could have been if we stuck with the player we drafted.

I’ll admit I was halfway in favor of the Shaq trade—just because we had never had a great center and I was hoping with our medical staff he could still be somewhat dominant. But I loved Marion, can’t wait for his well-deserved ROH induction!

Ahhhh... so you just like slightly above average centers, it all makes sense now.

Hahaha, I mean I was hoping for at least a return to 2006 Shaq. But he did win an All-Star co-MVP.

[Split T]

I’m actually curious if anyone has ever averaged 25 ppg with 3 fta/g or less…let me go check

[Split T]

The answer is no…Nikola Vucevic has the highest ppg with 3 or fewer fta. 23.4 in 2020-21

[Split T]

Calvin Murphy has the fewest fta for a 25 point game scorer at 3.5 a game.

[TOO]

Ayton would have to just become a completely different player to average 25 a game, he'd have to bang in the paint and finish through initiated contact, or he turns into KAT and bombs away from 3 at a 40% clip. Neither seem likely.

[JeremyG]

Guys, Drewsprocket was talking about Marion not Ayton.

[TOO]

I just assume at this point it's always Ayton. Aytomatic.

[Split T]

Ha…it did sound incredibly like Ayton

[SunsShine]

It could just as easily describe Ayton, so I can understand the confusion lol.

[JeremyG]

And yet everyone loved Matrix...

[JeremyG]

But just to address the arguments...

Ayton doesn't have to be a completely different player to average more than 3 FTA/G (3.5 per 36). But let't stick with 3 FTA/G and zero threes (again, he could shoot a moderate amount with becoming KAT).

If he gets 20 two-point FGA/G at just .570 FG% = 11.4 FG * 2 points = 22.8 points
+ .755 (career FT%) * 3.0 = 2.27 points
= 25.07 ppg

Easy.

[Split T]

There was never a question of effort with Marion. His defense was always elite. His complaints were more about getting recognition. Ya he did want the ball more, but he always showed up.

[Split T]

But just to address the arguments...

Ayton doesn't have to be a completely different player to average more than 3 FTA/G (3.5 per 36). But let't stick with 3 FTA/G and zero threes (again, he could shoot a moderate amount with becoming KAT).

If he gets 20 two-point FGA/G at just .570 FG% = 11.4 FG * 2 points = 22.8 points
+ .755 (career FT%) * 3.0 = 2.27 points
= 25.07 ppg

Easy.

There was literally zero players that took 20 2 point field goal attempts a game last year. Only 13 players even took 20 shots a game and none of them are Centers. Ayton is not getting 20 shots.

[JeremyG]

But just to address the arguments...

Ayton doesn't have to be a completely different player to average more than 3 FTA/G (3.5 per 36). But let't stick with 3 FTA/G and zero threes (again, he could shoot a moderate amount with becoming KAT).

If he gets 20 two-point FGA/G at just .570 FG% = 11.4 FG * 2 points = 22.8 points
+ .755 (career FT%) * 3.0 = 2.27 points
= 25.07 ppg

Easy.

There was literally zero players that took 20 2 point field goal attempts a game last year. Only 13 players even took 20 shots a game and none of them are Centers. Ayton is not getting 20 shots.

You just mentioned Vucecic. He got 20 FGA in 2020-21 and shot only .477 FG%. Why not Ayton? It would be like that only more efficient with fewer threes and a bit more FTA.

EDIT: And Embiid averaged 20.1 FGA last season. And if Ayton never gets fouled, then that only increases his field goal attempts per touch.

[Split T]

Vucevic could run some offense…he also averaged 3.8 assists that year…was on an Orlando team without good guards.

I don’t see that for Ayton. Scoot is the focus of that team. He’s going to have the ball. I don’t think he’s going to be advanced enough as a playmaker to get Ayton the shots to get to 20. 15ish shots is what I expect.

Vucevic does seem like a decent player type for Ayton to mold his game after though if he’s not going to become an aggressive player around the rim. Extend the range…develop some high post playmaking. If he does that I could see a 23/12/3 season at some point in his future like Vuc had.

Edit: I did miss Embiid…not sure how..I see him now at the top of my search. Still, Embiid barely got to 20 and he was the MVP. I just don’t see it for Ayton, but maybe Portland will surprise me

[SunsShine]

Jeremy, are you hopeful this trade works out to the benefit of the team or would you want Nurkic to fail and Ayton to succeed to say you told us so (or maybe even a little bit of both )? I was initially against the trade myself, but I have warmed up to it more over the past few days and am hopeful it was the right decision to have made.

[JeremyG]

Jeremy, are you hopeful this trade works out to the benefit of the team or would you want Nurkic to fail and Ayton to succeed to say you told us so (or maybe even a little bit of both )? I was initially against the trade myself, but I have warmed up to it more over the past few days and am hopeful it was the right decision to have made.

I don't care whether Nurkic succeeds or fails, as long as we win a championship. I expect Ayton to far outperform him either way in Portland.

But I don't expect us to win a championship even if we get the best version of Nurk possible--it's still too big of a downgrade.

[JeremyG]

Vucevic could run some offense…he also averaged 3.8 assists that year…was on an Orlando team without good guards.

I don’t see that for Ayton. Scoot is the focus of that team. He’s going to have the ball. I don’t think he’s going to be advanced enough as a playmaker to get Ayton the shots to get to 20. 15ish shots is what I expect.

Vucevic does seem like a decent player type for Ayton to mold his game after though if he’s not going to become an aggressive player around the rim. Extend the range…develop some high post playmaking. If he does that I could see a 23/12/3 season at some point in his future like Vuc had.

Edit: I did miss Embiid…not sure how..I see him now at the top of my search. Still, Embiid barely got to 20 and he was the MVP. I just don’t see it for Ayton, but maybe Portland will surprise me

This is my more realistic scenario:

.330 * 1.8 3PA = 0.594 * 3 = 1.78 points
+
.770 * 3.9 FTA = 3.00 points
+
.587 * 16.4 (18.3 FGA - 1.9 3PA) 2PA = 9.627 * 2 = 19.25 points

= 24.0 ppg (another 0.8 2PA would get him to 25)