2024 Election

[specialsauce]

Unscientific and anecdotal experience on a conspiracy theory.

Orrrrrrrr nobody there likes Biden but is willing to vote for a literal turd on the sidewalk as president before Trump again . Crazy thought I know

[specialsauce]

Also anyone who wears political attire or signage or goes to a political rally Is a total complete loser. Unless it's their family or friend they're supporting

[In2ition]

That may be true, or in the very least it's an opinion that you have. I do find the "don't believe your lying eyes" approach to politics to be a new phenomenon in US history.

II thought this was interesting on CNN last night. Of course, surveys and polls are votes, so...standard disclaimer...it's still so early, so anything could change.

[specialsauce]

That may be true, or in the very least it's an opinion that you have. I do find the "don't believe your lying eyes" approach to politics to be a new phenomenon in US history.

II thought this was interesting on CNN last night. Of course, surveys and polls are votes, so...standard disclaimer...it's still so early, so anything could change.

I mean let's put it this way: Bidens immigration policy (or lack of a coherent plan) is atrocious. I hate Biden. I think the best thing that could happen to this country is for both these candidates to just die of old age. But this election isn't about policies. I'll be voting for whoever is opposite the Trump campaign. So these polls on singular topics are meaningless. Because I could agree with Trump on many issues and I'll still vote D.

[In2ition]

That may be true, or in the very least it's an opinion that you have. I do find the "don't believe your lying eyes" approach to politics to be a new phenomenon in US history.

II thought this was interesting on CNN last night. Of course, surveys and polls are votes, so...standard disclaimer...it's still so early, so anything could change.

I mean let's put it this way: Bidens immigration policy (or lack of a coherent plan) is atrocious. I hate Biden. I think the best thing that could happen to this country is for both these candidates to just die of old age. But this election isn't about policies. I'll be voting for whoever is opposite the Trump campaign. So these polls on singular topics are meaningless. Because I could agree with Trump on many issues and I'll still vote D.

Individually, I think everyone has their reasons to vote for or against. I just don't think overall, the vast majority of Biden voters are making hate votes. I don't think that most people are motivated by hating one Candidate vs the other. When that happens, it's far more likely that they are apathetic to voting altogether. Voting against a person does motivate some people, but I don't consider you to be the average or majority voter. That's not a slight or criticism of you though, and there probably is many more that feel this way on this forum, but I think the people that post on this forum are more politically aware.

[Nodack]

The topic of immigration to me is just one of those topics that comes up every election since I can remember. Republicans hammer the Dems on it for votes every time.

Trump was elected in the 2016 election and the GOP controlled everything. Mexico was going to build the wall and the GOP was finally going to fix the border. Mexico didn’t pay for the wall. Surely the GOP that just tried to impeach the Homeland Security secretary for not doing anything about the border would step in and finance Trumps wall. They refused. Trump had to steal some funds from the military to build a small section of the wall. They started a “build the wall” fund that patriotic Americans could send money to to help build the wall. Unfortunately Bannon was in on the project and started stealing the money. He was arrested and convicted but, his good friend Trump didn’t mind that Bannon was stealing Trumps wall funds and pardoned him.

The GOP attempt to impeach the Homeland guy failed. Impeach him for not doing enough even though the changes they want can only come from them? Biden called their bluff. “Work out a bipartisan deal and I will sign it.” So, they worked out a bipartisan deal that both sides seemed happy with and Biden was ready to sign it. Then Trump stepped in and said “Don’t pass that bill. It will make Biden look good before the election and our biggest weapon against the Dems, Immigration will be lost and that will hurt my chances of re-election. The Cons then decided to not vote on it. I know in2 doesn’t agree. I don’t care. It’s the truth.

[In2ition]

Is the Trump hate just getting dying out a bit, even in SF? Is it that people are getting just can't carry that hate for as long?

[Mori Chu]

The word you want to search for is "favorability." Trump consistently has negative favorability, roughly 54% unfavorable to 42% favorable ish in most polls. FiveThirtyEight has some data on it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... ald-trump/

The current numbers do not indicate a growth of new support for Trump. But if you want to believe anecdotes from David Sacks, who is a large Trump donor, about some random gathering and how many people showed up to it, be my guest.

[Nodack]

Why would he want to search for something that says the opposite of what he’s trying to convey?

[In2ition]

Fivethirtyeight is such a wonderful insight and accurate data on elections, so why argue about it.

[Nodack]

Violent crime is down and the US murder rate is plunging, FBI statistics show
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-vi ... index.html

US violent crime decreased in 2023, continuing to reverse pandemic-era spike, FBI data shows
https://apnews.com/article/crime-fbi-vi ... e19dc1b4c9

'It is historic': US poised to see record drop in yearly homicides despite public concern over crime
The year is expected to end with over 2,000 fewer murders than in 2022.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/homicide-numb ... =105556400

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong.
Almost 80 percent of Americans, and 92 percent of Republicans, think crime has gone up. It actually fell in 2023. An expert blames a familiar culprit for the mistaken impression.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/pe ... rcna129585
Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”

[Kryptonic]

But those are numbers straight from crooked Biden regime. I’ll just say it now to get it out there. SMH.

[Mori Chu]

Joe Biden personally called each of those news organizations and told them to doctor those numbers to make him look good!!

[In2ition]

If crime is happening, but the police tell you that they don't have the manpower to investigate them or charge them, and DAs refuse to prosecute them, would that skew the numbers?

The only one that I would say wouldn't really ever be skewed is homicides, because they would definitely be reported, investigated and prosecuted. The only caveat to that, is if the police rule a homicide as a suicide.

[Mori Chu]

Another poll, this one in Ohio. I think Biden has no chance there, but who knows.

[Mori Chu]

Nate Silver goes over some paths to 270 EVs for the candidates. I know some don't like Silver, and I don't much care for his hot takes and punditry. I do value when he posts data and charts and polls and such, though.

[Mori Chu]

This is an excellent article. Well written and I agree with it wholeheartedly.

[Mori Chu]

New Fox News poll. This one is good for Biden, but, standard disclaimer.



The last several polls have been (narrowly) good for Biden.

[Nodack]

Trumps numbers are slipping. Is it because of the conviction or because of the retribution he promises if elected? I think both. People are tired of the drama.

[Mori Chu]

Excellent John Oliver episode about Project 2025 and the dangers of a second Trump presidency.