2024 Election

[In2ition]

The fire alarm guy loses his primary.

[Mori Chu]

Interestingly, progressive Dem Rep Jamaal Bowman lost his primary. (Edit: In2 beat me to this one.) It sounds like he was pretty critical of Israel lately and that may have hurt him.

[Mori Chu]

Seems like a bad overall primary night for the Dems.

[Mori Chu]

Former GOP rep Adam Kinzinger endorses Joe Biden.

[Mori Chu]

This made me laugh.

[Mori Chu]

Some folks here like Nate Silver / 538 and others do not. Nevertheless he's one of the most prominent political statisticians / modelers around and it's noteworthy when he puts out his models and predictions. He has just released his 2024 Presidential election model, and he says he thinks Trump is currently favored to win. He puts Trump's chance of winning at around 55-60%.

Some of his reasons why:

If Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not just one of them.

Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia (and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District) (...), and that’s not quite a sure thing given Biden’s mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast.

In those Sunbelt swing states — meaning Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where he won last time, and North Carolina, Florida and Texas, where he didn’t — Biden trails badly.

[Superbone]

This made me laugh.

► Show Spoiler

It will be interesting to see if he can bring the same energy he brought to the State of the Union address.

[Mori Chu]

SotU was a scripted speech, read off a teleprompter, with no interruptions or attacks from an opponent. This will be mostly impromptu and fought against an aggressive opponent who knows how to push buttons.

I watched all of Trump's debates in 2016 and 2020, and my personal opinion is that in every single one, he ends up looking awful. Completely batshit crazy, angry, deranged, thin-skinned, unprofessional, un-Presidential. So to me he "loses" every debate handily. Biden isn't a great debater but has been decent in most of them. I don't recall him badly losing any debate or coming off really hurting himself. He sort of plays it to a draw in most cases.

I think one odd thing that will impact the debate is that the GOP's years of denouncing Joe as "sleepy" and "demented" and such things, can backfire on them. The Fox-addicted viewers who tune in to the debate will expect Biden to drool on himself and fall asleep. If he (likely) is instead generally cogent and well reasoned, it can seem like he greatly exceeded expectations. I think Trump's people realize that that is likely to happen, which is why they're trying to get out ahead of it by accusing Biden (with no evidence) of taking miscellaneous drugs to improve his debate performance.

[In2ition]

I don't watch Fox, but I'm sure they set the bar so low for Biden, that if he completes his sentences, he will be declared the winner.

Now, I'm curious if he's going to continue to lie about Trump and his own involvement in Hunter's business deals again like he did in 2020. This is what I expect though.

[JeremyG]

SotU was a scripted speech, read off a teleprompter, with no interruptions or attacks from an opponent.

What about Marjorie?

[Mori Chu]

New NYT/Siena poll. This one is pretty good for Trump.

[Mori Chu]

Made me chuckle.

[Mori Chu]

Anybody else watching this debate? I have to say, as somebody who loathes Trump and wants Biden to win: this is going so badly for Joe Biden. He seems about 1000 years old. His voice is a whisper, he is slurring and shushing his "S" sounds like an old man, he has this blank agape stare when he isn't speaking, and he just doesn't seem cogent or present. Really really bad for Joe.

[JeremyG]

It is insane that our country has come to this, insisting on choosing one of these two buffoons to be President!

No wonder the campaigns made sure to exclude Kennedy from the debate! He may have actually won the election if he was allowed to debate these embarrassing old men!

(And even with his spasmodic dysphonia, Kennedy has a stronger voice than Biden. Yikes.)

[Charlie Smithy!]

If there was any election where a third party could/would/should win...

[Flagrant Fowl]

A lot of Americans love to shit on various ideologies or governmental systems while unacknowledging this election is a direct result of uninhibited Capitalism.

[JeremyG]

I am convinced that Jimmy Carter could still give a more cogent response to some of the questions than Biden did!

[Mori Chu]

Embarrassing.

[Nodack]

I recorded it. I made it through half f it and couldn’t watch anymore. It was as advertised. A bumbling old grampa versus a seriallyingsexualpredatoregomaniacrussianpuppettaxevadingconmancriminaltraitor.

There was no way I was voting for RFK. Now I am not so sure.

[In2ition]

The DOJ strikes again...it's just a joke.