The Kevin Durant Problem

[Split T]

I’ve cooled on #3…I think there is a pretty good drop from 2-3 in this draft. I’m not sure it’s all that much better than 10. I wouldn’t touch Embiid…unless it’s for Beal.

I also am not sure what some of you think we can get for KD. 2 1sts and at least 2 good players seems pretty great to me. Why would any team give up prime assets for a 37 year old?

[Superbone]

I’ve cooled on #3…I think there is a pretty good drop from 2-3 in this draft. I’m not sure it’s all that much better than 10. I wouldn’t touch Embiid…unless it’s for Beal.

I also am not sure what some of you think we can get for KD. 2 1sts and at least 2 good players seems pretty great to me. Why would any team give up prime assets for a 37 year old?

Yep, like TOO and many others, I'm prepared to be disappointed in our haul. Especially, with our new inexperienced GM. My best hope is to be pleasantly surprised but we'll most likely be underwhelmed. The chances of even being whelmed are slim.

[The Bobster]

When you trade a star there are certain things you might be looking for in return -

- A different star
- Multiple quality players (better depth)
- Acquisition of future assets (namely draft picks)
- Financial flexibility

You can consider yourself successful if you manage to get a couple of these things in return. In the case of trading Durant, you won;t get a star because of his age. You might be able to get a couple of talented players in return, but probably not enough veteran talent to turn the team around. So your most likely round is acquiring draft picks and getting some financial flexibility out of the deal (i.e. gettting below the 2nd Apron).

They're certainly going to get players in return because they have to match salaries, so the question becomes "Are they willing to take on a bad contract or two in return?" as long as it includes some actual meaningful draft capital?

I still think the best way to build something sustainable is by being successful in the draft. And while the Suns have had the draft choices to do that they've failed miserable with their premium draft choices. The last stars that they've drafted and kept are Booker (2015), Stoudemire (2002) and Marion (1999). That has to change. They have to make good choices and do a better job of developing talent.

[Split T]

Bottom 3 is what they are looking at for sure. I think all are achievable to an extent.

[Carno]

Agreed, but it may be possible to get a marginal star for Durant, rather than just serviceable veterans. For example, If the Suns can get draft picks for Durant, perhaps they can route them to Utah for Markkanen. My guess is the Suns would much prefer Markkanen or someone of his caliber than draft picks.

[Split T]

Ya that’s possible…I don’t really like that route though. Not sure it makes sense to come away with just 1 guy in place of KD. We have too many holes.

[Mori Chu]

I like Markkanen, but he's not better than KD. If we basically swap KD for Lauri, we will again be a borderline play-in team and probably miss the play-in, and we'll still have no picks. I would especially be disappointed if we swing a 3-team deal where we could have just taken picks and youngs for KD but instead route those to Utah so we can get Markkanen and no picks instead.

[Superbone]

I like Markkanen, but he's not better than KD. If we basically swap KD for Lauri, we will again be a borderline play-in team and probably miss the play-in, and we'll still have no picks. I would especially be disappointed if we swing a 3-team deal where we could have just taken picks and youngs for KD but instead route those to Utah so we can get Markkanen and no picks instead.

Of course he's not better than KD. That's not the point. He's a better player for our system though. We're not going to get back a single player better than Durant in whatever trade we pull off.

[Carno]

I like Markkanen, but he's not better than KD. If we basically swap KD for Lauri, we will again be a borderline play-in team and probably miss the play-in, and we'll still have no picks. I would especially be disappointed if we swing a 3-team deal where we could have just taken picks and youngs for KD but instead route those to Utah so we can get Markkanen and no picks instead.

This is a list of players taken top 10 in the last 10 years that are comparable or better than Markkanen. I used top 10 because at the time of the draft, these are the players that are expected to be good/great. This is ChatGPT with some of my own modifications. The list is obviously subjective, but I think it's pretty reasonable. It does neglect the last two drafts, where there a few potential players that could make this list but it's too early to tell. We could probably pencil in Wembanyama (though I'm not as high on him as most people).

(2015) Karl‑Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis
(2016) Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Domantas Sabonis
(2017) Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo <--- (plus Markkanen himself)
(2018) Luka Dončić, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr., Mikal Bridges <--- (Sorry Jeremy, no Ayton)
(2019) Zion Williamson (if healthy, good luck with that), Ja Morant, Darius Garland
(2020) Anthony Edwards
(2021) Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley
(2022) Paolo Banchero, Bennedict Mathurin

We could debate this list all day and claim comparable players later in the draft, but my point is that the draft is a crap shoot. A LOT of duds are taken in the top 10. There is no guarantee that 3 draft picks will result in a player of Markkanen's quality, especially considering these picks are probably not going to be in the top 10. The odds just get worse later in the draft.

Markkanen is not as good as KD now, but in 5 years when KD is dead and Lauri is just 32, he most certainly will be. Lauri is still young.

Also, I just bring up Markkanen as an example. It could be someone else of his caliber, i.e. fringe NBA all-star. Plus, there could be other assets attached to equilibrate the value and salaries on both sides of the deal. This could all be fantasy too. I'm just trying to counter the prevailing burn it down and rebuild crowd. There is an alternative to a full rebuild.

So, if the Suns make these changes, they can be a playoff team:

1. Trade KD for fringe All-star (e.g. Markkanen)
2. Jettison Beal
3. Make good deals around the margins to bring in better effort/defense.
4. Better coaching (until proven otherwise, I have faith in Ott)
5. Booker plays better (which I think is likely since last year really was anomalous)

It helps being an eternal optimist. You all should give it a try!

[ShelC]

I like Markannen but he feels too similar to KD. He's a 7ft SG. I'd certainly take him in some 3way trade involving KD but I'm not sure he moves the needle as a difference maker.

I do like the idea of a 3way trade moving a SG we have to take back but don't need like Vassell or Jalen Green. Or maybe it's 2 separate trades due to the CBA but either way try and move one of those guys to a spot like Orlando and take back some combo of Cole Anthony, Jonathan Issac, Goga, KCP.

[O_Gardino]

I don't think Utah will trade Markannen. They are one of the franchises that seems to always need a white star.

Since this is the internet, I'll argue for the trade anyway. I do think he is significantly different from Durant. KD is best with the ball in his hands, and LM is best playing off the ball. Yes, he shoots a lot of 3s, but he's also a good cutter and roll man. Plus, he's 10 years younger than KD. He also has a bit of a chip on his shoulder and can play with some grit. I think he would be a good fit next to Book. (Just don't look at his injury history.)

[JeremyG]

[TOO]

Kalel Ware please.

[Superbone]

It helps being an eternal optimist. You all should give it a try!

Great post, Carno! And thanks for the reminder! Life is better this way.

[Superbone]

That's a nice variety of teams. The more, the merrier. We need some healthy competition.

[Mori Chu]

IMO Houston may have overplayed / misplayed their hand here in terms of KD negotiations. I think they think they can low-ball us in their offers for KD and/or that they can get us to give them Booker instead. We don't have to trade with them, and we aren't giving them Booker. So the most likely outcome is they just miss out on KD, who I think would actually be really helpful for them and help them grow into a contender over the next 2-3 years before he tapers off. He gives almost exactly what they need, clutch offense and high scoring night to night. But they seem to think they can hold back basically all of their enticing assets and offer their puu-puu platter for us because we'll be so desperate as to take it. Nuh uh. Plenty of other teams want KD and will make us better offers than that.

[JeremyG]

I still think our best option may be to trade KD for KAT straight up, with no picks involved. I really think we could get at least 3 firsts for KAT next summer.

[Split T]

This guy says Knicks are out

[Superbone]

Suns Trade Talks Heating Up As Multiple Suitors for Kevin Durant Emerge
https://heavy.com/sports/nba/phoenix-su ... s-emerged/

Among Durant’s suitors, the Timberwolves are +300 favorites to land Durant at offshore sportsbook Bovada, rated as one of the top mobile betting apps. The Rockets are close second at +350. A distant third are the Dallas Mavericks (+800) while the Spurs and Heat, tied at +1000, are betting long shots.

Talks between the Suns and Durant’s camp have escalated quickly after the hiring of Jordan Ott, a first-time head coach, to replace veteran and champion tactician Mike Budenholzer, who only lasted one season in the desert.

Ott’s hiring represents a fresh start for the Suns, who spectacularly failed with their Big Three experiment under veteran coaches, who have won championships. Like Budenholzer, the one he succeeded, Frank Vogel, who guided the Los Angeles Lakers to the 2020 championship, spent only one season in Phoenix.

Among the teams that have expressed interest in Durant, the Rockets have the upper hand.

According to Kelly Iko of The Athletic, the Suns have contacted the Rockets since their seasons ended.

“Phoenix is aggressive in pursuit of a) trading Kevin Durant and b) regaining full control of their draft capital starting with the No. 10 pick in next month’s draft, team sources said. Since the conclusion of the season, Houston has fielded several calls from Phoenix, who have since gradually lowered their asking price for Durant, those sources said,” Iko wrote.

[TOO]

This guy says Knicks are out

Suns didn't want KAT, they can't do anything else.