Game Day: Suns (20-57) @ Hawks (45-32), Tues 4/5/16

[Mori Chu]

Really unfair of the basketball gods to break Warren's foot right as we were going full youth-movement.

Yeah, I really wanted to see heavy doses of Warren to end the season. Alas.

[OE32]

Really unfair of the basketball gods to break Warren's foot right as we were going full youth-movement.

Yeah, I really wanted to see heavy doses of Warren to end the season. Alas.

Look on the bright side - we'd have fewer ping pong balls if Warren played!

But yeah, me too.

[dragickingdom]

I can envision next year taking a step forward if healthy as a team and depending on who our coach is.

[Nodack]

I'm not sold on Warren yet. Offensively yes, defensively no.

[Indy]

I'm not sold on Warren yet. Offensively yes, defensively no.

So basically the same as nearly everyone on the team, except he is good on offense...

[Nodack]

I think Booker does a decent job on defense.
I think Len does a decent job on defense.
Chandler was named defensive player of the year at one point.
Tucker gets crap here for not being a great defender but, he is always put on their best guy and I think is a pretty good defender.
Price is a decent defender.

Goodwin is Swiss cheese on defense.
Knight is Swiss cheese.
Warren is Swiss cheese.

Mirza is almost average on defense
Bledsoe is average on defense.
Leuer is average on defense.

I am 100% sure almost everybody here will disagree with my assessment but, that is my assessment based on watching 98% of the games this year.

[Indy]

I think Booker does a decent job on defense.
I think Len does a decent job on defense.
Chandler was named defensive player of the year at one point.
Tucker gets crap here for not being a great defender but, he is always put on their best guy and I think is a pretty good defender.
Price is a decent defender.

Goodwin is Swiss cheese on defense.
Knight is Swiss cheese.
Warren is Swiss cheese.

Mirza is almost average on defense
Bledsoe is average on defense.
Leuer is average on defense.

I am 100% sure almost everybody here will disagree with my assessment but, that is my assessment based on watching 98% of the games this year.

I will jump on that 100% bet on disagreeing!

Based on the advanced stats, not a single person on our team is a good defender. The closest to being good (only giving up 100 points/100 possessions) are Bledsoe, Leuer, Chandler, and Len (all at 107/100). Price and Tucker are next at 109, then TJ/Mirza/BHS at 111, with Booker last at 113.

You can also look at Defensive Box Plus/Minus, which is very similar. It shows that only Chandler/Len/Tucker are better than an average NBA player (so around 200th best in the league). Devin and Mirza are the worst at -2.6 and -2.8 respectively.

[Ring_Wanted]

Bad teams usually are bad because they can't defend. Not our case, but you can be decent offensively yet if you suck on defense you are toasted more often than not.

These Suns are terrible team defenders. You have some individuals who try but we are just hopeless overall.

What I see is that Len, Tucker and to some extent Chandler (rebounding) can be salvaged. Bledsoe. Price and Leuer try. The rest is extremely weak (especially Knight per eye test) so everybody's advanced stats are going to suffer accordingly.

To verify this, more than said metrics, I am interested in defensive FG%@rim (obviously for big men in particular) and regular FG differential for perimeter players.

There is variance, but big men who allow less than 50% include most of the supposed monsters in the paint. Gobert, Bogut, DeAndre, Davis etc. On the other hand, known liabilities such as Love, Griffin, Z-Bo, etc, are all well above 52%. Len is just middle of the pack at 50% and Chandler shows a reprehensible 53.7%.

The perimeter is where the team lacks. Per FG differential, Booker, Archie (and Teletovic) are particulary weak making it easier to opponents by between +3 and +5%.

Knight doesn't suck here ('just' +2.1%), but combined with his FG allowed at the rim (team worst 61.6%) it confirms that he is basically a liability anywhere on the court. Clear contrast to Bledsoe, who at 47.4% is one of the very few non specialists to allow less than 50% at the rim. Others include Kawhi, Millsap, Draymond. For comparison, Rubio allows 59%, Lowry 67% and Westbrook 58%. PJ Tucker concedes a 49.7%, also a bright spot.

In terms of the aforementioned FG diff, Bledsoe and Tucker are -1.6% and -1.9% respectively. Those two are our only decent perimeter defenders. Price almost neutral at +0.2%.

[Mori Chu]

Good post, Ring. You didn't speak too much about Booker; I don't think he is a strong defender, but I hope he can be improved over time. We'll need him to be at least average defensively at his position.

[Ring_Wanted]

Thanks. There is not much to say about Booker's defense. His mindset is that of a competitor and I don't see him allowing people to kill him just so he can do his thing on the other end although at this point he often can't keep up with vets. Still, we can afford to be confident that his body development will help. I don't expect Jimmy Butler but I'd be surprised if he became just the total liability his current numbers suggest. If I had to point at one of our youngs regarding long term concers, that would be Warren.